Russia Will Not Attack: Former Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach Calls for Realistic Power Politics in Burgwerben near Weissenfels

Key Messages of the Lecture

• Global Shift in Power: The world is entering a new “Great Game” between the United States, a resurgent Russia, and China. Europe, he claimed, has largely become a mere spectator — a situation of its own making due to ideological politics, the energy transition, uncontrolled migration, and excessive sanctions. Schönbach illustrated Europe’s loss of significance with the image of the German Chancellor and Macron as “potted plants” at the Gaza peace conference.
  
  
• The Ukraine War: Schönbach condemned the Russian invasion in 2022, but emphasized the broader historical context of the conflict (NATO eastward expansion and the treatment of the Russian-speaking population in the Donbas). He advocated negotiations and criticized the reflexive rejection of mediators such as Gerhard Schröder. In the long term, he considered a partition of Ukraine likely, arguing that the different population groups could scarcely live together anymore. He described NATO membership for Ukraine as unrealistic.
  
  
• The United States and Trump: Schönbach described U.S. policy as classic great-power politics (“America First” and Monroe Doctrine logic). Interventions primarily serve American interests, while Europe is not a priority consideration. According to him, the conflict with Iran mainly serves to weaken China.
  
  
• Germany and Europe: Schönbach criticized Germany’s national security strategy and military strategy as too vague and ineffective. He argued that Germany is losing substance through ideological policies (energy transition, sanctions, “reparations agenda”) and risks declining into a developing economy. He advocated for peacefulness backed by strength — maintaining strong defensive capabilities while exercising restraint.
  
  
• Ideas for the Future: He floated the idea of neutrality (armed neutrality modeled after Switzerland or Austria) as an option for Germany, clearly supported the return of mandatory military service (for men and women, including naturalized citizens), and warned against moral one-upmanship in politics.

The Discussion

• Deterrence vs. Aggression: Schönbach argued that a strong military is necessary as a deterrent. He said he sees no ideological expansionism on Germany’s part.
  
  
• NATO and the EU: Both alliances, he argued, require reforms but still retain value for stabilizing Europe. At the same time, one participant criticized them as military alliances geared toward war.
  
  
• The Baltic Sea and the “Shadow Fleet”: Schönbach downplayed recent incidents as normal military routine behavior.
  
  
• Sanctions and Energy: He criticized Germany’s unilateral moral-driven policies, arguing that other EU states do not follow the same approach. In his view, Germany is harming itself.
  
  
• Conscription: He reaffirmed that mandatory service should apply to all Germans.
  
  
• AfD: Schönbach commented in a neutral-to-positive manner on his personal impressions and the ideological proximity of some AfD positions to earlier CDU programs.
  
  
• His Dismissal in 2022: When asked, he described in detail the circumstances surrounding his forced retirement after comments he made in India regarding Crimea and Russia. He considered the reaction of the then “traffic light” coalition government (especially Baerbock) to be excessive.

Conclusion

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