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Who Will Save the Ukrainians from German Politics?Calls in politics for the repatriation of able-bodied Ukrainians are growing louder. 
Numerous refugees from Ukraine who fled the war there were taken in by Germany and, unlike refugees from other countries, are treated preferentially. They received citizen’s allowance and were allowed to work immediately if they found employment. Refugees from other countries receive lower benefits under the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act and may only work once their status is recognized, which can take many months. But now the tide seems to be turning for the refugees from Ukraine. Voices from the CDU/CSU are calling for Ukrainians who are not working to return to Western Ukraine, as it is considered safe there. Otherwise, they should only receive benefits under the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act. Politics is clearly in a dilemma. Anyone observing the situation in Ukraine knows that Russian troops are advancing slowly but steadily. Ukrainian forces are at best on the defensive and are increasingly forced to retreat. Ukraine lacks enough soldiers to counter this. The pressure for Ukrainian refugees to return has already been increased by the Ukrainian government. Ukrainians in Germany are reportedly no longer having important documents like passports issued at the Ukrainian embassy. They must travel to Ukraine for these. It is quite clear that able-bodied individuals can no longer leave Ukraine and are being conscripted to fight on the front lines. Sources claim that soldiers with only brief military training have low chances of survival at the front. Increasingly, ideas for repatriating Ukrainians come from within the CDU/CSU ranks. Friedrich Merz considers the citizen’s allowance for Ukrainians a mistake. Brandenburg Interior Minister Michael Stübgen has generally called citizen’s allowance for Ukrainian refugees wrong—he rejects payments to Ukrainians of conscription age. CSU parliamentary group leader Alexander Dobrindt wants to send Ukrainian refugees without jobs back. What Could Be the Reasons for This Change in Mood?Possibly, the CDU/CSU feels encouraged by recent election results. On the other hand, the federal budget looks bleak. Expenses are high; more is to be spent on armaments, and Ukraine is to continue receiving weapons support. Added to this is the economic situation in Germany with a persistently negative trend. Those betting on the SPD or the Greens might be proven wrong. Although Chancellor Scholz said at the reconstruction conference for Ukraine: "The best reconstruction is the one that never has to happen." The country needs weapons and ammunition. But to operate those weapons, soldiers are needed. While long-range missiles can strike targets deep behind enemy lines, territories can only be taken and held by ground troops. Talking about reconstruction already assumes that the Ukrainian government will eventually achieve its goals—namely, that all Russian-occupied territories are retaken. This also requires soldiers. The deployment of non-Ukrainian troops is largely rejected so far, to avoid officially entering the war with Russia or triggering the NATO defense clause. Because that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. The German military is not particularly well prepared to actually conduct armed conflicts. Consequently, this can only mean that political pressure on the Ukrainian refugees will increase. The next step could be the downgrade of the citizen’s allowance to benefits under the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act. Furthermore, administrations might deny benefits if the affected Ukrainians lack the necessary documents. Politics and administration can then always claim they are simply following the law. How Will Those Who Have Cared for Ukrainians So Far React?I assume that politics will have no choice but to push for the repatriation (remigration) of Ukrainians. This would solve several problems at once. The German state budget would be relieved, fewer people would need housing, and the Ukrainian government could reinforce its troops so the war can continue. This will be anything but positive for the affected people. I wonder how those who have cared for the Ukrainian refugees so far will react. Will they take to the streets to demonstrate that Ukrainians should not be forced to fight on the front lines? Or will they shrug their shoulders and say that laws are laws and must be obeyed—even if this means the death of those who have been truly embraced here? Helpers of Ukrainian refugees are mostly found among those who did not protest or criticize government measures during the pandemic years. Back then, they were “on the government line,” because it was always said that lives had to be saved. Some of them also protested in the Burgenlandkreis this year alongside the district administrator, mayors from the CDU, SPD members, the Left party, and church representatives against right-wing extremists. But how will it look regarding Ukrainians? Will they oppose the government line, the CDU, SPD, Greens, and FDP to save Ukrainian lives, or will they watch idly because the laws are the way they are? I know some will say that Putin just has to withdraw from Ukraine. Anyone with common sense should realize that, given the history since at least 2014 and the current situation, this is illusory. Putin recently made a peace offer, which the West, however, rejected. German politics, the coalition government, therefore do not want a ceasefire for the sake of the people and to save lives. Unless other ways to end this conflict emerge, the logical consequence will likely be that able-bodied Ukrainian refugees will be sent back to Ukraine and conscripted to fight on the front lines, so that the war continues—especially since the German government has promised arms deliveries to Ukraine for 2025 to 2028. If no NATO troops are to be deployed, the Ukrainian government will have to be supported in deporting able-bodied Ukrainians back to Ukraine in the foreseeable future. It is only a question of how this will be sold to the public in the usual gradual manner. Who will save the Ukrainians from German politics—or at least try to? Author: AI-Translation - Michael Thurm | vor dem 01.07.2024 |
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