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Looking Back at the Great Illusion: The “Job Engine” of Renewable Energy in Saxony-Anhalt – Promises of 2021 vs. Reality in 2026On September 17, 2021, the Parliament of Saxony-Anhalt debated the Green Party parliamentary group's motion “Accelerating the expansion of renewable energy as a job engine for Saxony-Anhalt.” ```html Cornelia Lüddemann (Greens) painted a bright picture of the future: “The economy of Saxony-Anhalt has long benefited from renewable energy. For years, the state has had the highest number of renewable energy jobs per capita. The energy transition is the job engine of Saxony-Anhalt.” She quoted economist Jens Südekum: “The country that is the first to achieve climate and resource neutrality will secure its economic foundation in global markets for decades.” Germany—with Saxony-Anhalt leading the way—must achieve climate-neutral economic activity by 2035. Mandatory rooftop solar, 2% of land designated for wind power, green hydrogen for the chemical industry—not another master plan, but implementation. Five years later, in mid-2026, we can assess the results of these policies. The balance sheet is sobering to catastrophic—especially when comparing the euphoric promises with hard facts. The Promised Boom Fails to Materialize – Electricity Feed-In Stagnates or DeclinesLüddemann and the Greens promised that more installed wind and solar capacity would automatically lead to more clean electricity and economic growth. The reality of 2025/2026 tells a different story: Despite further expansion of solar power (and, in some cases, wind power), this growth did not lead to a significant increase in actual electricity generation. Wind power suffered from unfavorable wind conditions in 2025—the output fell by around 3–4% compared to 2024 (approximately 131 TWh nationwide, with onshore generation declining). Solar power increased substantially and partially compensated for this, but total renewable energy output remained largely stable (accounting for around 55–56% of net electricity generation). There were even indications of lower yields compared to previous windier periods.Saxony-Anhalt, once a pioneer, reflects this trend. Expansion stalled at times, and repowering progressed only slowly. The massive land allocation (2%) and mandatory solar installations demanded by the Greens would have placed further strain on landscapes and public acceptance—without proportional increases in output, as weather conditions and system integration challenges (storage and grid infrastructure) reveal clear limits. AfD speakers such as Hannes Loth and Daniel Roi had already warned in 2021 about the lack of baseload security and dependence on imports during periods of low wind. The debate showed that the Greens relied on storage solutions and “good examples” such as Tesvolt or the hydrogen caverns in Bad Lauchstädt—but these came nowhere near solving the intermittency problem. The world's largest battery storage system could cover Germany's baseload demand for only seconds, one AfD parliamentarian scoffed. Five years later, energy security remains a persistent issue. Job Engine? More Like a Job Destroyer and a Driver of DeindustrializationLüddemann warned the new black-red-yellow coalition government: “Otherwise, by the end of this legislative term, you will have to explain to many people why jobs have been lost while no new future-proof jobs have been created.” Ironically, this prediction struck her own ideology particularly hard. Although jobs still exist in the renewable energy sector (around 26,000 in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026, including individual expansions such as at Enercon), the supposed “engine” continued to sputter. Years of high energy prices, bureaucratic hurdles, and uncertain framework conditions squeezed energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and metals. Nationwide studies point to deindustrialization: high electricity prices as a competitive disadvantage, business relocations, and insolvencies among small and medium-sized enterprises.In 2021, the Greens ignored warnings from the AfD and others: “The failed energy transition is not a job engine but a massive job destruction program” (Dr. Jan Moldenhauer, AfD). The costs of the energy transition run into the trillions, electricity prices are among the highest in the world (with an East-West divide)—precisely what critics predicted. Green hydrogen remained expensive and limited, and the chemical industry in Saxony-Anhalt has not benefited as promised. Instead, 2026 has brought subsidies, grid fee support, and debates over industrial electricity prices—measures that amount more to symptom management than success. Sandra Hietel (CDU) reminded the parliament in 2021 of previous Green Party resolutions and the repowering report, which demonstrated that significant progress could be achieved using existing sites—without further “delivery” of the landscape. Nevertheless, the Greens continued to demand coercion and speed. Today we see ongoing problems with public acceptance, conflicts over species protection, and bureaucratic delays. The promised participation of municipalities (such as external area levies) has only marginally reduced resistance. Climate Neutrality by 2035? A Grotesque Ambition Gap RemainsLüddemann accused the government of “inaction” and a “massive ambition gap,” calling for a coal phase-out by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2035. Five years later, Germany remains far from these goals. The share of renewables has increased slowly, but not revolutionarily; fossil backup capacities, particularly gas, remain necessary. The “manageable climate crisis” as the fundamental prerequisite for everything? Instead, we are facing high follow-up costs, growing dependencies, and policies that sacrificed real industrial jobs for symbolic objectives.The Left Party and the SPD shared some criticism regarding the lack of progress but advocated similar approaches. The FDP emphasized citizen participation and rejected coercion. The AfD described it as “climate madness” and central planning—an assessment that aligns more closely than ever with the economic reality of 2026. An Implementation Problem? More of a Problem of UnderstandingCornelia Lüddemann said in 2021: “Saxony-Anhalt does not have a problem of understanding, but a problem of implementation.” Wrong. The real problem was and remains the lack of realistic understanding of the limits of weather-dependent energy sources, the macroeconomic costs, and the technical feasibility without massive investments in storage, grid infrastructure, and backup capacity. The expansion brought more installed capacity, but not proportionally more reliable output, affordable energy, or a sustainable job boom capable of offsetting losses in conventional industries.In 2026, Saxony-Anhalt faces the same problems as in 2021—only with higher debt, more expensive energy, and a weakened industrial base. The Green vision of 2021 was not a vision but an expensive illusion. It is time for an honest assessment instead of new master plans. Citizens and businesses have already paid the price. The IPCC’s Abandoned Worst-Case ScenarioWhile Cornelia Lüddemann spoke in 2021 of a “manageable climate crisis” as the absolute prerequisite for any future vision and warned of horror scenarios involving deadly heatwaves, droughts, and famines, science itself has since made a significant correction. The most extreme and frequently cited IPCC worst-case scenario, RCP8.5 (and its successor SSP5-8.5), was officially classified as “implausible” in 2026 and largely discarded for the next IPCC report (AR7). This scenario, which assumed an almost unchecked coal boom and nearly 5°C of warming by 2100, had fueled the most alarmist forecasts and calls for radical transformation for years—including in Saxony-Anhalt.According to the scientists, declining costs of renewable energy, actual emissions trajectories, and policy measures have rendered this worst-case scenario unrealistic. Rather than seeing climate neutrality by 2035 as the only possible salvation, it has become clear that the world has already moved away from the most extreme pathway. Nevertheless, Green rhetoric in Saxony-Anhalt remained stuck to the old script: maximum ambition, coercion, and land consumption—regardless of whether the most dramatic threat scenarios remain tenable. The “grotesque ambition gap” that Lüddemann accused the government of having now appears, in retrospect, like self-generated panic intended to justify expensive and economically damaging measures. The Reality of the Chemical Industry – From the “Future Market of Green Hydrogen” to InsolvencyThe failure of the Green vision is particularly evident in the much-celebrated chemical industry of Saxony-Anhalt. In 2021, Lüddemann confidently declared: “Only in this way can the innovative and high-performing chemical industry in our state truly tap into the future market of green hydrogen.” Five years later, this very industry is facing one of its most severe crises since German reunification—marked by high energy prices, uncertain framework conditions, and a lack of competitiveness.A particularly sad symbol is the chemical company DOMO in Leuna. At the end of 2025, the Belgian group filed for insolvency for its German subsidiaries, including two in Leuna. Around 500 jobs in Leuna were placed at immediate risk. The state of Saxony-Anhalt was forced to allocate nearly €80 million in taxpayer funds to maintain emergency operations and prevent safety risks and an uncontrolled shutdown. Only months later, the successor company also filed for insolvency—a sign of deep structural problems that have been massively exacerbated by high electricity and energy costs. Instead of new jobs created by green hydrogen, the result was job cuts and growing dependence on subsidies. The much-promoted dream of green hydrogen also failed to materialize at MIBRAG, another key player in the Central German mining region. Despite early announcements and political support for a 90 MW electrolyzer in Profen, the project was postponed and never realized. Instead of a transformation toward green hydrogen production, the company continues to struggle with the coal phase-out, insufficient infrastructure, and economically unviable conditions. The promised bridge from the fossil-fuel era to the “green” age is proving fragile—with real risks to jobs rather than the promised employment engine. These developments in Leuna and the lignite mining region make one thing clear: the one-sided focus on accelerating the expansion of wind and solar power while simultaneously making conventional energy more expensive has not strengthened energy-intensive industries—it has weakened them. Instead of the “preservation of existing jobs and the creation of new future-proof jobs” promised by Lüddemann, we are witnessing trends toward deindustrialization, taxpayer-funded rescue measures, and a chemical industry fighting for survival. In practice, the “renewables job engine” has primarily become a subsidy engine and a burden on traditional industry. Renewable Energy Is Not Economically Viable Without SubsidiesAnother central criticism of the Green vision of 2021 concerns the claim that wind and solar power are already competitive and would constitute a genuine job engine without massive government support. Cornelia Lüddemann and her parliamentary group presented the expansion of renewables as a self-sustaining success story. The reality of 2026, however, tells a different story: Without subsidies, guaranteed feed-in tariffs, market premiums, or auctions with fixed support rates, most new wind and solar projects in Germany still do not pay off—or only to a limited extent.Despite declining generation costs (LCOE), the actual market value of the electricity fed into the grid is often significantly lower, primarily due to the so-called cannibalization effect: when large amounts of wind or solar power are generated simultaneously, wholesale electricity prices fall sharply. Large projects depend on support under the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)—now largely financed from the federal budget—or comparable mechanisms in order to achieve profitable returns. Experts point out that facilities in less favorable locations would be economically unviable without this support. The supposed “job engine” is therefore not based on a free market or genuine competitiveness, but on a permanent subsidy model that burdens taxpayers and keeps electricity prices structurally high. Five years after the debate, it has become clear that expansion would have been significantly slower and less attractive to investors without these government guarantees—a clear indication that the technology is not yet fully market-ready. Author: AI-Translation - АИИ | |
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