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Fake News Machine Karl Lauterbach Continues His Antics – Indonesia Supposedly Replaced the Combustion EngineIt is quite remarkable: Pandemic policy has disappeared from the headlines, yet Karl Lauterbach regularly reappears with his usual apocalyptic certainty about the future of the world – this time of all things with a graphic about Indonesia. 
The former health minister dramatically explains on Facebook that the internal combustion engine there has been “replaced in an extremely short time.” Worldwide, the retreat of this technology is now beginning, the “Iran war” will also play a role, and Europe must not become “the new automotive Cuba.” So much pathos – and so little reality.Because the graphic spread by Lauterbach does not show that the combustion engine has been replaced. Instead, it shows a classic example of politically motivated wishful projection: An early growth trend in electric cars is simply extended linearly into the future. A small beginning suddenly becomes a revolution on paper. Anyone who reads statistics seriously immediately recognizes the trick.
The real market data tell a completely different story. Electric cars are indeed growing in Indonesia – but from a very low starting point. Even by 2025, their share of new registrations is around 15 to 18 percent. Pure battery-electric vehicles account for about 12 to 13 percent. Combustion engines and hybrids still dominate with roughly 80 to 85 percent. So there is not even the slightest indication of a “replaced combustion engine.” A look at the bare numbers from Indonesia finally exposes Lauterbach’s narrative as a statistical smokescreen. The country has around 280 million inhabitants and roughly 173 million motorized vehicles. But anyone imagining a fleet of modern electric cars is completely mistaken. Indonesian traffic is dominated by motorcycles – about 145 million of them, meaning more than 80% of the entire vehicle stock. Passenger cars account for only about 21 million vehicles. And of these total 173 million vehicles, less than one percent are pure electric cars. In other words: More than 99% of vehicles still run on combustion engines or hybrid technology. The supposedly “replaced combustion engine” therefore continues to exist there in reality millions of times over – on roads that are primarily characterized by mopeds and motorcycles. What Lauterbach presents as evidence of a global technological revolution is in fact a classic statistical sleight of hand: Take a small share of new registrations, ignore the gigantic existing vehicle stock – and then proclaim a historic turning point. In short: Lauterbach is selling a forecast as reality.But even these figures must be viewed in context. Indonesia is not a free market but a heavily politically steered automotive sector. The state uses subsidies, import restrictions, and local production requirements to deliberately push electromobility. In addition, there is a strategic raw-material policy centered around nickel – a key component of batteries – as well as strong participation by Chinese companies in expanding the industry. In other words: The Indonesian market is a special case. Anyone trying to derive a global development from it is engaging either in crude oversimplification – or deliberate misrepresentation. It becomes even more adventurous when Lauterbach suddenly incorporates geopolitical speculation into his forecast. The possible influence of an Iran conflict on global propulsion technologies belongs more in the category of crystal-ball reading than serious analysis. But dramatization has always been one of the former minister’s trademarks. The comparison with Cuba also seems pulled from the rhetorical mothball box. Comparing Europe with an isolated island economy whose car fleet includes decades-old American classic cars for historical reasons is about as analytically precise as a horoscope. Technological transformations in the automotive sector simply proceed slowly. Vehicles remain in use on average for more than a decade. Infrastructure must be built, production chains reorganized, raw materials secured. Even under optimistic assumptions, experts speak of transition periods spanning several decades – not of the sudden disappearance of a technology. But Lauterbach’s post illustrates a fundamental problem of the current political debate: wishful thinking is increasingly replacing sober analysis. A particularly good example is the energy question. Anyone who seriously believes that fully electrified transportation can simply be willed into existence by political decree ignores the physical foundations. Even today, Germany faces the gigantic challenge of covering its energy demand. Even with massive expansion of wind and solar energy, questions arise regarding land use, grid infrastructure, storage technologies, and security of supply. The sober reality is: Germany’s land area is not sufficient to generate the entire required amount of energy solely through sun, wind, and similar sources. Anyone who wants to conduct this debate seriously must talk about system costs, grid expansion, storage, and baseload supply. Lauterbach, however, posts a graphic on Facebook and declares the world explained. It is a style that has by now become familiar: moral certainty plus statistical simplification equals political messaging. Yet intellectual honesty would be particularly necessary on this topic. Electromobility is growing worldwide due to political incentives, it will play a role, and it can be sensible in many areas. But immediately deriving the downfall of the combustion engine from a growing market share is about as serious as a weather forecast for the year 2075. One could say: Lauterbach remains true to himself. He has always been a master of maximum exaggeration. Unfortunately, exaggeration does not replace facts. And that is precisely why this Facebook post reads like a textbook example of how political communication too often works today: a graphic, a bold claim, a geopolitical alarm – and the viral post is ready. Unfortunately, it has little to do with reality. Karl Lauterbach’s fake news were easily exposed as such by Facebook users, complete with sources. Nevertheless, there still seem to be a few Lauterbach disciples for whom the Lauterbachian horizon appears to be entirely sufficient.
Author: AI-Translation - АИИ | |
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