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Shrinking Region – District Administrator Götz Ulrich (CDU) Tries Statistical CosmeticsThe article in the Mitteldeutsche Zeitung from 01.04.2026 about the dispute between Burgenlandkreis and the state of Saxony-Anhalt over population projections initially appears to be a technical debate about statistics. But in reality, it is about something else: why a region has been losing residents for decades – and why politics has still failed to find an effective response. 
District Administrator Götz Ulrich (CDU) considers the state’s projection too pessimistic. While the state expects only around 139,000 residents by 2040, a study commissioned by the district administrator predicts about 158,000 people. The difference is therefore almost 20,000 residents. But even the more optimistic variant means one thing: The district continues to shrink. Looking Back: Projections Existed Decades AgoThe current discussion almost feels like déjà vu. Similar projections were already published 20 or 30 years ago. In 1990, around 244,000 people lived in what is now Burgenlandkreis. By 2022, it was only about 174,000. That’s a loss of roughly 70,000 residents – nearly one-third of the population.All of Saxony-Anhalt has also lost significant population since reunification: from around 2.87 million in 1990 to about 2.12 million in 2025. Already in the early 2000s, demographers predicted a marked decline. A state projection, for example, assumed that Saxony-Anhalt could lose about 18.6% of its population by 2025. At their core, these projections were therefore not wrong. The population decline has indeed occurred. The real problem, then, is not the projections – but that politics has found hardly any effective countermeasures for decades. Structural Change as Hope – or Excuse?District Administrator Ulrich relies on “special effects”: structural change after the coal phase-out, migration from Leipzig and Jena, affordable rents. But similar hopes have arisen before. Already in the 1990s and 2000s, promises were made that funding programs, new industrial areas, or infrastructure projects would reverse the trend. Yet the district continued to shrink.The Economic Reality Is SoberingMany young people move to big cities for study or work. Birth rates remain low. The population is aging rapidly. Demographic change is therefore not a sudden event but the result of decades of development.Family Policy: The Real Core ProblemOne crucial point is hardly addressed in the current debate: Why are fewer and fewer people having children – and why don’t young families stay in the region?The answers are obvious: uncertain economic prospects, low wages compared to western Germany, insufficient rural infrastructure, closed schools, daycare centers, and medical practices. Germany as a whole struggles with low birth rates – but structurally weak regions are hit especially hard. When young people move away, later there are fewer parents, fewer children, and ultimately fewer workers. It is therefore hardly surprising that projections repeatedly show declining numbers. The Paradoxical School PolicyParticularly noteworthy is a point in the MZ article: the district experienced schools being closed that were later needed again.This raises a fundamental question: If districts and municipalities are responsible for schools – why don’t they resist such closures? Especially in rural areas, school closures often have dramatic consequences: families move away, young couples never settle, villages lose their future. A school is not just a place of education. It is a location factor. Those who close schools should not be surprised if children are also missing later. A Political Responsibility – Across Party LinesThe dispute between district and state over projections ultimately distracts from the real question: Who is responsible for the development of the region?The CDU, which District Administrator Ulrich also belongs to, has held a significant part of government responsibility for decades – both federally and in many state governments. Other parties have also been in government. But regardless of the coalition: The demographic downward trend has never been stopped. Instead of long-term strategies, there were often: funding programs without sustainable impact, short-term structural policies, infrastructure cutbacks in rural areas. Projections change nothing about reality. Whether Burgenlandkreis has 139,000 or 158,000 residents in 2040 is ultimately secondary. The crucial question is another: Why has the region been losing people continuously for over 30 years – and why has politics not provided a convincing answer? A new projection for 18,000 euros may be statistically interesting. But it does not solve a single structural problem. As long as young people see better prospects elsewhere, the trend is unlikely to change. What Is Really NeededInstead of arguing about numbers, politics should finally talk about solutions: better economic prospects in rural areas, genuine family support, stable infrastructure (schools, doctors, transport), long-term investments instead of short-term funding programs.Because one thing is very clear from the last 30 years of history: Population decline is not a statistical error. It is the result of political decisions. And that is precisely why it can only be changed politically. If previous concepts and measures clearly do not work, there is little sense in continuing to stick to them. Misplaced Priorities – District Administrator Götz Ulrich Is Just an AdministratorAnother problem emerges in the actions of District Administrator Götz Ulrich (CDU): he once again presents himself primarily as an administrator who checks numbers rather than actively shaping policy and demanding a fundamental change from higher levels.The 18,000 euros for his own population projection could – considering the budget deficit of 22 million euros – have been far better invested in supporting families, daycare centers, or schools. Instead, funds are spent to “beautify” a projection in the sense of the district administrator, while the real problems – shrinking communities, closed schools, missing childcare – remain. That there was still money in the budget for such measures only shows how much priorities are shifted in political practice. Author: AI-Translation - АИИ | |
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